Predictive value of a combined model for lymph node metastasis in NSCLC based on primary lesion radiomics from 18F-FDG PET/CT

doi:10.3760/cma.j.cn371439-20241113-00022

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To evaluate the value of a combined model based on primary lesion ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose（¹⁸F-FDG） PET/CT radiomics for predicting lymph node metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer（NSCLC）. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 203 NSCLC patients who underwent pre-treatment PET/CT imaging at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from June 2013 to July 2023. Patients were randomly assigned to the training set（n=142） and the validation set（n=61） at a ratio of 7∶3. A predictive model was developed in the training set， and its predictive performance and clinical application value were assessed in both the training and validation sets. Traditional PET/CT parameters and PET/CT radiomics features of the primary lesion were obtained by 3D-slicer software. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator（LASSO）， random forest， and extreme gradient boosting were performed to extract features. Support vector machine was used to construct a radiomics score（Radscore）. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to predict the influencing factors of lymph node metastasis in NSCLC patients and to establish models. Predictive performance of the models was evaluated by receiver operator characteristic（ROC） curves and clinical application value was assessed by calibration curves and decision curve analysis（DCA）. Results Among 203 NSCLC patients， 116 had lymph node metastasis， with 64 cases in the training set and 52 cases in the validation set. Three complementary classical machine learning methods were used for feature screening， and finally 10 radiomics features were obtained. The optimal threshold for Radscore-PET was 0.43 and the optimal threshold for Radscore-CT was 0.39. Univariate analysis showed that， sex（OR=0.48， 95%CI：0.24-0.95， P=0.036）， tumor marker levels（OR=3.81， 95%CI：1.84-7.91， P<0.001）， long diameter of tumor（OR=2.56， 95%CI：1.27-5.16， P=0.009）， short diameter of tumor（OR=3.73， 95%CI：1.75-7.92， P=0.001）， vacuolar sign（OR=0.32， 95%CI：0.12-0.86， P=0.024）， ring-like metabolism（OR=3.67， 95%CI：1.33-10.13， P=0.012）， maximum standardized uptake value（SUV_max）（OR=6.57， 95%CI：3.03-14.25， P<0.001）， metabolic tumor volume（MTV）（OR=2.91， 95%CI：1.43-5.92， P=0.003）， total lesion glycolysis（TLG）（OR=4.23， 95%CI：2.08-8.59， P<0.001）， Radscore-PET（OR=21.93， 95%CI：9.04-53.20， P<0.001） and Radscore-CT（OR=13.72， 95%CI：6.12-30.76， P<0.001） were all influencing factors for predicting lymph node metastasis in NSCLC patients. Multivariate analysis showed that， tumor marker levels（OR=2.55， 95%CI：1.11-5.90， P=0.028）， vacuolar sign（OR=0.26， 95%CI：0.08-0.83， P=0.023）， SUV_max（OR=5.94， 95%CI：1.99-17.75， P=0.001）， Radscore-PET（OR=25.51， 95%CI：5.92-110.22， P<0.001）， and Radscore-CT（OR=8.68， 95%CI：2.73-27.61， P<0.001） were independent influencing factors for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with NSCLC. Based on the above independent influencing factors， models were constructed：the traditional model（tumor marker levels， vacuolar sign， SUV_max）， the PET model（SUV_max， Radscore-PET）， the CT model（vacuolar sign， Radscore-CT）， and the combined model（tumor marker levels， vacuolar sign， SUV_max， Radscore-PET， Radscore-CT）. ROC curve analysis showed that， the area under curve（AUC） of the traditional， PET， CT， and combined models in the training set were 0.75（95%CI：0.67-0.82）， 0.90（95%CI：0.84-0.95）， 0.85（95%CI：0.78-0.90）， and 0.94（95%CI：0.88-0.97）， respectively. The predictive value of the combined model was higher than that of the traditional model（Z=5.01， P<0.001）， the PET model（Z=1.99， P=0.047）， and the CT model（Z=3.25， P=0.001）. In the validation set， the AUCs for the traditional model， PET model， CT model， and combined model were 0.65（95%CI：0.52-0.77）， 0.86（95%CI：0.74-0.93）， 0.85（95%CI：0.73-0.93）， and 0.90（95%CI：0.80-0.96）， respectively. The predictive value of the combined model was superior to that of the traditional model（Z=3.23， P=0.001）. The sensitivity and specificity of the combined model in the training set were 84.37% and 91.03%， while in the validation set， the sensitivity and specificity were 82.61% and 94.74%， respectively. Calibration curves showed a good agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities in both the training and validation sets. DCA showed that the combined models had good discriminative ability in both the training and validation sets. Conclusions Tumor marker levels， vacuolar sign， SUV_max， Radscore-PET， and Radscore-CT are all independent influencing factors for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with NSCLC. The combined model based on these factors demonstrates excellent predictive performance and clinical application value for predicting lymph node metastasis in NSCLC.

Key words: Carcinoma, non-small-cell lung, Positron emission tomography computed tomography, Radiomics, Lymph node metastasis

Lai Ruihe, Teng Yue, Rong Jian, Sheng Dandan, Geng Yuzhi, Chen Jianxin, Jiang Chong, Ding Chongyang, Zhou Zhengyang. Predictive value of a combined model for lymph node metastasis in NSCLC based on primary lesion radiomics from ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT[J]. Journal of International Oncology, 2025, 52(3): 144-151.

Figures/Tables 8

项目	训练集（n=142）	验证集（n=61）	χ²值	P值	项目	训练集（n=142）	验证集（n=61）	χ²值	P值
年龄（岁）					钙化
≤60	45（31.69）	23（37.70）	0.69	0.405	无	136（95.77）	58（95.08）	<0.01	>0.999
>60	97（68.31）	38（62.30）	0.69	0.405	有	6（4.23）	3（4.92）	<0.01	>0.999
性别					毛刺征
男	84（59.15）	35（57.38）	0.06	0.814	无	14（9.86）	6（9.84）	<0.01	0.996
女	58（40.85）	26（42.62）	0.06	0.814	有	128（90.14）	55（90.16）	<0.01	0.996
吸烟史					分叶征
无	101（71.13）	47（77.05）	0.76	0. 384	无	24（16.90）	8（13.11）	0.46	0.497
有	41（28.87）	14（22.95）	0.76	0. 384	有	118（83.10）	53（86.89）	0.46	0.497
饮酒史					血管集束征
无	122（85.92）	56（91.80）	1.37	0.242	无	99（69.72）	41（67.21）	0.13	0.724
有	20（14.08）	5（8.20）	1.37	0.242	有	43（30.28）	20（32.79）	0.13	0.724
肿瘤标志物水平					空泡征
正常	57（40.14）	20（32.79）	0.98	0.322	无	117（82.39）	48（78.69）	0.39	0.535
升高^a	85（59.86）	41（67.21）	0.98	0.322	有	25（17.61）	13（21.31）	0.39	0.535
病理类型					环形代谢
鳞状细胞癌	105（73.94）	45（73.77）	<0.01	0.979	无	121（85.21）	57（93.44）	2.68	0.102
腺癌	37（26.06）	16（26.23）	<0.01	0.979	有	21（14.79）	4（6.56）	2.68	0.102
肿瘤位置					SUV_max
右叶	80（56.34）	45（73.77）	5.48	0.019	≤7.83	59（41.55）	25（40.98）	0.01	0.940
左叶	62（43.66）	16（26.23）	5.48	0.019	>7.83	83（58.45）	36（59.02）	0.01	0.940
外周型/中央型					MTV（cm³）
外周型	127（89.44）	55（90.16）	0.02	0.876	≤4.64	57（40.14）	25（40.98）	0.01	0.911
中央型	15（10.56）	6（9.84）	0.02	0.876	>4.64	85（59.86）	36（59.02）	0.01	0.911
肿瘤长径（cm）					TLG（g）
≤2.35	57（40.14）	27（44.26）	0.30	0.585	≤24.81	69（48.59）	30（49.18）	0.01	0.939
>2.35	85（59.86）	34（55.74）	0.30	0.585	>24.81	73（51.41）	31（50.82）	0.01	0.939
肿瘤短径（cm）
≤1.77	51（35.92）	32（52.46）	4.83	0.028
>1.77	91（64.08）	29（47.54）	4.83	0.028

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变量	β值	SE值	Wald χ²值	OR值	95%CI	P值
年龄	-0.36	0.36	0.97	0.70	0.34~1.42	0.325
性别	-0.74	0.35	4.38	0.48	0.24~0.95	0.036
吸烟史	0.49	0.37	1.70	1.63	0.78~3.38	0.192
饮酒史	0.46	0.49	0.92	1.59	0.62~4.12	0.338
肿瘤标志物水平^a	1.34	0.37	12.91	3.81	1.84~7.91	<0.001
病理类型	0.49	0.39	1.62	1.63	0.78~3.47	0.203
肿瘤位置	0.35	0.34	1.08	1.42	0.73~2.78	0.299
外周型/中央型	0.68	0.56	1.47	1.96	0.66~5.85	0.225
肿瘤长径	0.94	0.36	6.85	2.56	1.27~5.16	0.009
肿瘤短径	1.32	0.39	11.71	3.73	1.75~7.92	0.001
钙化	1.88	1.11	2.86	6.53	0.74~57.36	0.091
毛刺征	-0.22	0.56	0.15	0.80	0.27~2.42	0.697
分叶征	-0.24	0.45	0.28	0.79	0.33~1.90	0.595
血管集束征	-0.46	0.37	1.53	0.63	0.30~1.31	0.216
空泡征	-1.14	0.50	5.09	0.32	0.12~0.86	0.024
环形代谢	1.30	0.52	6.33	3.67	1.33~10.13	0.012
SUV_max	1.88	0.40	22.70	6.57	3.03~14.25	<0.001
MTV	1.07	0.36	8.68	2.91	1.43~5.92	0.003
TLG	1.44	0.36	15.93	4.23	2.08~8.59	<0.001
Radscore-PET	3.02	0.45	46.62	21.93	9.04~53.20	<0.001
Radscore-CT	2.62	0.41	40.44	13.72	6.12~30.76	<0.001

变量	β值	SE值	Wald χ²值	OR值	95%CI	P值
性别	-0.65	0.44	2.24	0.52	0.22~1.22	0.134
肿瘤标志物水平^a	0.94	0.43	4.81	2.55	1.11~5.90	0.028
肿瘤长径	-0.75	0.83	0.82	0.47	0.09~2.39	0.365
肿瘤短径	0.31	0.76	0.17	1.37	0.31~6.11	0.681
空泡征	-1.37	0.60	5.20	0.26	0.08~0.83	0.023
环形代谢	0.01	0.63	<0.01	1.01	0.29~3.50	0.983
SUV_max	1.78	0.56	10.19	5.94	1.99~17.75	0.001
MTV	0.69	0.69	1.00	1.20	0.52~7.71	0.316
TLG	0.14	0.77	0.03	1.15	0.26~5.19	0.856
Radscore-PET	3.24	0.75	18.87	25.51	5.92~110.22	<0.001
Radscore-CT	2.16	0.59	13.39	8.68	2.73~27.61	<0.001

分组	模型	AUC	95%CI	敏感性(%)	特异性(%)	准确性(%)
训练集	传统模型	0.75^a	0.67~0.82	57.81	84.62	63.38
	PET模型	0.90^b	0.84~0.95	89.06	78.21	79.58
	CT模型	0.85^c	0.78~0.90	90.62	67.95	77.46
	联合模型	0.94	0.88~0.97	84.37	91.03	84.51
验证集	传统模型	0.65^d	0.52~0.77	91.30	47.37	62.30
	PET模型	0.86^e	0.74~0.93	78.26	76.32	78.69
	CT模型	0.85^f	0.73~0.93	78.26	94.74	81.97
	联合模型	0.90	0.80~0.96	82.61	94.74	83.61

Predictive value of a combined model for lymph node metastasis in NSCLC based on primary lesion radiomics from ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT

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