国际肿瘤学杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (10): 584-590.doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn371439-20260119-00093

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于超声瘤内及瘤周影像组学可解释性机器学习模型预测乳腺癌PD-L1表达状态的价值

陈桥梁1, 覃心妍2, 杜海雯3, 檀双秀3()   

  1. 1 南京鼓楼医院核医学科, 南京 210008
    2 南京大学医学院, 南京 210008
    3 南京鼓楼医院超声医学科, 南京 210008
  • 收稿日期:2026-01-19 出版日期:2026-10-08 发布日期:2026-10-10
  • 通讯作者: 檀双秀,Email: tsx950304@163.com
  • 作者简介:

    陈桥梁:研究酝酿和设计、数据收集与分析、论文撰写;覃心妍:数据整理、论文修改;杜海雯:统计学分析、论文修改;檀双秀:研究设计与指导、论文修改

Value of an interpretable machine learning model based on intratumoral and peritumoral ultrasound radiomics for predicting PD-L1 expression status in breast cancer

Chen Qiaoliang1, Qin Xinyan2, Du Haiwen3, Tan Shuangxiu3()   

  1. 1 Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Nanjing 210008, China
    2 Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, China
    3 Department of Ultrasound Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Nanjing 210008, China
  • Received:2026-01-19 Online:2026-10-08 Published:2026-10-10
  • Contact: Tan Shuangxiu,Email:tsx950304@163.com

摘要:

目的 探讨超声瘤内及瘤周影像组学特征在预测乳腺癌程序性死亡受体配体1(PD-L1)表达状态中的价值, 并构建可解释性机器学习模型。 方法 选取2017年7月至2022年5月南京鼓楼医院收治的101例乳腺癌患者作为研究对象, 其中PD-L1阳性48例, PD-L1阴性53例。 将患者按照7∶3的比例随机分为训练集(71例)与验证集(30例)。 比较PD-L1阳性和PD-L1阴性患者的年龄、肿瘤位置、肿瘤长径、肿瘤短径、乳腺影像报告与数据系统(BI-RADS)分类、组织学分级和分子分型。 从瘤内和瘤周5 mm区域各提取976个超声影像组学特征, 通过t检验和最小绝对收缩和选择算子 (LASSO)回归筛选最优影像组学特征, 并构建影像组学得分(RS)。 采用极端梯度提升 (XGBoost) 机器学习算法构建预测PD-L1表达的联合模型。 使用受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型效能, 采用沙普利加和解释法(SHAP)分析对XGBoost模型进行可解释分析。 结果 训练集中PD-L1阳性组(33例)和阴性组(38例)患者的组织学分级差异具有统计学意义(Z=-2.56, P=0.010), 年龄、肿瘤位置、肿瘤长径、肿瘤短径、BI-RADS分类和分子分型差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。 从瘤内及瘤周区域分别筛选得到9、8个最优影像组学特征。 基于上述特征分别构建瘤内RS=-0.514 + 0.428×original_ ngtdm_ Contrast-0.153×wavelet_ HL_ glcm_ Correlation -1.224×wavelet_ HH_ glcm_ Id + 0.376×exponential_ gldm_ SmallDependenceLowGrayLevelEmphasis + 0.034×exponential_ glcm_ Idmn-1.006×gradient_ ngtdm_ Busyness + 0.365×gradient_ ngtdm_ Coarseness-0.893×logarithm_ glcm_ DifferenceVariance + 0.291×square_ glcm_ DifferenceVariance、瘤周RS=-0.463 + 0.391×wavelet_ LH_ firstorder_ Mean-0.715×wavelet_ LH_ firstorder_ Skewness-0.421×wavelet_ LH_ glcm_ Correlation-0.444×wavelet_ LL_ gldm_ DependenceNonUniformityNormalized + 0.859×logarithm_ glcm_ Correlation + 0.835×logarithm_ glcm_ Inverse Variance + 0.392×square_ glcm_ Imc2-0.463×square_ glrlm_ GrayLevelNonUniformityNormalized。 基于XGBoost模型, 将瘤内RS、瘤周RS和组织学分级构建联合模型。 ROC曲线分析显示, 训练集和验证集中联合模型预测乳腺癌患者PD-L1表达状态的曲线下面积分别为0.909(95%CI为0.817~0.965)、0.864(95%CI为0.690~0.961)。 SHAP分析显示, 瘤周RS是XGBoost模型中最具有预测价值的特征, 其次是瘤内RS和组织学分级。 结论 基于超声瘤内RS、瘤周RS和组织学分级构建的XGBoost模型能够有效预测乳腺癌PD-L1表达状态, 瘤周RS是XGBoost模型中最具有预测价值的特征。

关键词: 乳腺肿瘤, 超声检查, 乳房, 预测, B7-H1抗原

Abstract:

Objective To investigate the value of intratumoral and peritumoral ultrasound radiomics features in predicting programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression status in breast cancer and to construct an interpretable machine learning model. Methods A total of 101 breast cancer patients admitted at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from July 2017 to May 2022 were selected as the study subjects, including 48 cases of PD-L1-positive and 53 cases of PD-L1-negative. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n=71) and a validation set (n=30) at a 7∶3 ratio. The age, tumor location, maximum tumor diameter, minimum tumor diameter, breast imaging reporting and data system (BI-RADS) category, histological grade and molecular subtype were compared between patients with PD-L1 positive and PD-L1 negative. A total of 976 radiomics features were extracted from both intratumoral and peritumoral 5 mm regions. Optimal radiomics features were selected using t-test and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, and a radiomics score (RS) was constructed. The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning algorithm was used to construct a combined model for predicting PD-L1 expression. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Interpretability of the XGBoost model was assessed using Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis. Results In the training set, there was a statistically significant difference in histological grade between PD-L1-positive (n=33) and PD-L1-negative (n=38) groups (Z=-2.56, P=0.010), whereas there were no statistically significant differences in age, tumor location, maximum tumor diameter, minimum tumor diameter, BI-RADS category, or molecular subtype (all P>0.05). A total of 9 and 8 optimal radiomics features were screened from the intratumoral and peritumoral regions, respectively. Based on the above features, the intratumoral RS and peritumoral RS were respectively constructed. The intratumoral RS=-0.514 + 0.428×original_ ngtdm_ Contrast-0.153×wavelet_ HL_ glcm_ Correlation-1.224×wavelet_ HH_ glcm_ Id + 0.376×exponential_ gldm_ SmallDependenceLowGrayLevelEmphasis + 0.034×exponential_ glcm_ Idmn-1.006×gradient_ ngtdm_ Busyness + 0.365×gradient_ ngtdm_ Coarseness-0.893×logarithm_ glcm_ DifferenceVariance + 0.291×square_ glcm_ DifferenceVariance. The peritumoral RS=-0.463 + 0.391×wavelet_ LH_ firstorder_ Mean-0.715×wavelet_ LH_ firstorder_ Skewness-0.421×wavelet_ LH_ glcm_ Correlation-0.444×wavelet_ LL_ gldm_ DependenceNonUniformityNormalized + 0.859×logarithm_ glcm_ Correlation + 0.835×logarithm_ glcm_ InverseVariance + 0.392×square_ glcm_ Imc2-0.463×square_ glrlm_ GrayLevelNonUniformityNormalized. A combined model incorporating intratumoral RS, peritumoral RS, and histological grade was built using the XGBoost model. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that, the area under the curve of the combined model for predicting PD-L1 expression status in breast cancer patients was 0.909 (95%CI:0.817-0.965) and 0.864 (95%CI:0.690-0.961) in the training and validation sets, respectively. SHAP analysis revealed that peritumoral RS was the most predictive feature in the XGBoost model, followed by intratumoral RS and histological grade. Conclusions The XGBoost model integrating ultrasound intratumoral RS, peritumoral RS, and histological grade effectively predicts PD-L1 expression status in breast cancer, with peritumoral RS being the most valuable predictive feature.

Key words: Breast neoplasms, Ultrasonography, mammary, Forecasting, B7-H1 antigen